Forum Thread

Retro Ho-Oh has unusually low Shiny rate

Forum-Index → Bug Reports → Resolved → Retro Ho-Oh has unusually low Shiny rate

MeepTheMareep02

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                                                Posted: Mon, 05/02/2024 08:44                                                (9 Months ago)
                                            

I compared the number of Shiny Retro Ho-Oh on-site, compared to most other event-exclusive retros, and the shiny rate is over 2.5 times lower than the stated 2%. No other retro has a shiny rate of below 1%, unlike Ho-Oh.

In fact, I believe Ho-Oh is the rarest Shiny Retro onsite, with all other retros having over 10 shinies.

- Note: I ignored more common/less valuable retros, as people are more likely to release the non-shinies (e.g. Chikorita, Cyndaquil, Totodile, Sentret, Hoothoot, Togepi, Charmander, Squirtle, Bulbasaur, Rattata, Zubat, Koffing), leading to a higher than actual shiny rate (some of them hitting 3%, usually those with more than 50 shinies onsite)
- Also ignored shinies that did not have the fixed 2% rate: Venusaur, Charizard, Blastoise, Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres, Meganium, Typhlosion, Feraligatr (Retro Radar means more people chose to only catch shinies), Magikarp, Ducklett (guaranteed shiny from event), Tentacool (likely uses beach shiny rate instead)
- I'm not familiar with how the Retro Gastly's line's shiny rates were calculated, but I'm assuming it's determined on encounter, so people avoid catching it unless it's Shiny

The shiny rate is so low that I wonder if it's a bug, or if it could be looked into? Thanks!

Ho-Oh: 9 Shiny, 1142 regular (0.78%)
Lugia: 22 / 1058 (2.03%)
Celebi: 21 / 869 (2.35%)
Pikachu: 53 / 3272 (1.59%)
Zigzagoon: 33 / 1844 (1.75%)
Poochyena: 33 / 1879 (1.72%)
Taillow: 36 / 1922 (1.83%)
Girafarig: 14 / 715 (1.92%)
Marill: 30 / 1361 (2.15%)
Corsola: 16 / 822 (1.90%)
Delibird: 90 / 3711 (2.36%)
Stantler: 46 / 2171 (2.07%)
Smoochum: 19 / 939 (1.98%)
Raikou: 34 / 1786 (1.90%)
Entei: 31 / 1630 (1.86%)
Suicune: 32 / 1516 (2.06%)
Mew: 21 / 1521 (1.36%)

MeepTheMareep02

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                                                Posted: Tue, 09/07/2024 19:05                                                (4 Months ago)
                                            

Bumping: In the 5 months since I made this post, there are now 1189 Retro Ho-Oh, and no new shinies. The shiny rate is now 0.75%

nat75

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                                                Posted: Thu, 11/07/2024 14:53                                                (4 Months ago)
                                            

Ho-oh is a very rare pokemon. So, the shiny rate is lower

Pls interact:

MeepTheMareep02

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                                                Posted: Thu, 11/07/2024 15:13                                                (4 Months ago)
                                            

"Rate" means "number of shiny Retro Ho-Oh" divided by "number of all Retro Ho-Oh"

Also, Retro Lugia, which has the same rarity and obtain method, has more shinies.

Riako

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                                                Posted: Mon, 12/08/2024 09:28                                                (3 Months ago)
                                            

I just extensively reviewed the code related to it (including the code history) and can confirm that there is no bug (and there never was one) causing this anomaly. The code does not distinguish between Retro Ho-oh, Retro Lugia, Retro whatever. It only checks "Is this a Retro". I can assure you that Retro Ho-oh also has a 2% shiny chance.
This effect can only be explained by "bad luck".

MeepTheMareep02

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                                                Posted: Mon, 12/08/2024 09:29                                                (3 Months ago)
                                            

Man, that sucks, but thanks for checking anyway!