Forum Thread

I've just gotten back to being active here and I randomly decided to do some math on the Game Center Pokemon Lottery

NOTE: some of these calculations may be wrong, but they should give you a semi-good idea of the probability for the lottery game. Feel free to point out any errors tho, that would honestly help me tbh.
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Resources I used to calculate this (if you're interested):
https://owlcation.com/stem/How-to-Calculate-Lottery-Probability

https://www.symbolab.com/solver/complex-numbers-calculator/%5Cfrac%7B%5Cleft(%5Cleft(%5Cfrac%7B5!%7D%7B2!%5Ccdot%5Cleft(5-2%5Cright)!%7D%5Cright)%5Ccdot%5Cleft(%5Cfrac%7B37!%7D%7B3!%5Ccdot%5Cleft(37-3%5Cright)!%7D%5Cright)%5Cright)%7D%7B%5Cleft(%5Cleft(%5Cfrac%7B42!%7D%7B5!%5Ccdot%5Cleft(42-5%5Cright)!%7D%5Cright)%5Cright)%7D

The basic google calculator
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The Data

Matches|___________Odds____________|Cost(includes 1 free ticket)| Prize
___5___|_________1/850,688_________|_42,533,350 game chips__| 20,000 game chips & S. Lugia Egg
___4___|185/850,688-or-approx. 1/4599_|__229,900 game chips___| 5,000 game chips & Lugia Egg
___3___|_555/70889-or-approx. 1/128 __|___6,350 game chips____| 1,000 game chips
___2___|__925/10127-or-approx. 1/11__ |____500 game chips____ | 200 game chips

Cost is the odds multiplied by the ticket cost (50) -50 (free ticket). Cost is a signifier of how many tickets it will take to have a statistic 100% chance of getting the prize.

Also srry in advance for any formatting mistakes, I don't know where the api for formatting text is, srry in advance if a post similar to this has already been made (if so please link me to it), and srry in advance if all this math is completely wrong oof.

Hope you guys have a good rest of your day!

Thanks for this :]

I figured out the 1/850,688 for 5/5, and I wanted to figure out the odds of rolling 4/5, for the regular Lugia egg, but I didn't know what words to use to refer to the formulas that would be needed to calculate something like this, so I couldn't look it up. So I'm glad someone already did the math.

Also, just to clarify, it's a statistical average, not a statistical 100% chance. The odds of you having won at least one of a particular prize by the time you've used enough tickets to meet the odds, are roughly ~63.2% (1-(4598/4599)^4599, for example.) You can increase those odds by making more and more attempts, but they will never reach 100%.

Yay I'm glad this helped! Tho I have to disagree with the 63.2% chance (for the first prize, for the others I agree). There are exactly 850,688 different, possible combinations. As for the other prizes and their 109% odds, I think I'd have to multiply 850,688 by their odds (ex 850688/11=x) and then do some subtraction/addition work that I'm too lazy to work out atm -∆- (maybe: if you buy 850688-x+1 tickets you have 100%)

Anyways, thank you for your comment! I'll definitely update my post :D

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Wait no, I just realized, that since there are only a specific amount of possibilities, and that they are non-repeating, then you absolutely do reach 100% once you bought the same amount of tickets as there are possibilities, for the 5/5 jackpot, as long as you were buying the 850,688 tickets on the exact same lottery draw. So you do make a good point there.

If you were buying tickets cumulatively over the course of several days or weeks, then you can't reach 100% odds, because once the day rolls over, the combinations that you picked the previous day are released back into the pool, and can be randomly selected again.

I'd have to think about it a bit more, but this likely also applies to the 2/5, 3/5 and 4/5 prizes, the has to be a certain amount of combinations that covers all bases, provided that you bought all the tickets on the same day.

Oooh, okie dokie. Thx still tho! Atm I'm trying to figure out which game gives the most tickets. So far it seems to be a tie between Concentration (~5000 Tix on hard. Takes 2-ish minutes and Hangman (max 1500tix takes 47-ish seconds)

Dang, 1500 from hangman. I'm too terrible at hangman to get that. I'm kind of just doing Concentration, and then Hangman while Concentration is on CD (and when both are on CD, I just click stuff, so I can spin Golden Slot.)

GL, if you're going for the jackpot. I don't really care myself, I just want a regular Lugia. I mean, it would be cool if I ended up with a shiny Lugia, but yeah. I'm kind of addicted to the Game Center tonight.

I like statistics, I'm glad they included stats on how often someone gets the jackpot. It doesn't really change anything, concretely, but it's still cool to know the odds, when going for something.

Actually I'm saving up for the 100% chance :3
It's slightly under the cost for a shiny Manaphy and you get somewhere around 100 normal Lugia eggs alongside the shiny one and some of your tix back.

Also, Ecco (the d00d who's at the top of of a lot of the ranklists) has this pinned on their userprofile hangman calculator

It's not automatic and still needs plenty of guess to be used since it doesn't work properly sometimes (if the spaces you have are _ o _ _ _ you can get calculated answers of hobo (two O's, incorrect) and the like (note: hobo isn't a word in the PokéHeroes hangman dictionary). Also there's one word floating around in the hangman word pool that hasn't been documented yet so if you get that you might lose your streak)

Sweet, thanks! I figured there had to be something like this.

Dang though, that must feel so satisfying, putting in 850k tickets, and receiving all of that cool stuff back the next day.

You're welcome!

Ans ikr? I can't wait till I get all the chips I need for it (it's gonna be a while tho;;)

I'm using it right now, and I noticed that it suggests terms with spaces in them, even when I don't input any spaces. It's not a big deal, because you can just ignore the results that have spaces in them, but I'll see if I can fix the code to prevent that from happening, just because I can.

Oh nice! I'm only good with C++, but I'm learning java when school starts again so I might be able to help in the future :D

I found the problem. It's a rather silly mistake, actually.

They do specifically check for spaces, but when there is an underscore, they completely skip checking. So it thinks underscore = space is valid.

It also doesn't properly check for spaces at all, so there's that (it checks if the entire string equals " ", instead of checking individual characters.) I've also fixed that.

https://jsfiddle.net/w5syjr08/show

Test with _E__E______

I might edit it further later, to have the results show up inline, and to use an input box, instead of using alert popups for everything. Alerts are awkward to use, and they also break on Firefox when the list of results is too long.

(Lmao I just got 2500 chips for the word "Natu", at 63 streak with 3 incorrect guesses)

Nice dude! You should make another forum to let other peeps know :0
(Ans thx, I'll start using the code you editted)

:D

I'm going to improve the UI first, get rid of the popup alerts, and then I want to make it smarter, so it won't suggest words it shouldn't, when repeating letters happen. Just need to wrap my head around it first.

I also want to include support for a blacklist of letters, so it won't suggest words if you know that a particular letter isn't in the word. That part should be easier to implement.

D000d that would be awesome! Good luck fam

*pssst!*

https://pokeheroes.com/forum_thread.php?id=76289

Thank you
I was trying to figure that one out myself.

Title: how much it would cost

850,688 x 50- 50(free ticket) = 42,534,350GC. that's 425343500PD. also the link to the hangman helper didn't work for me but here is the one I use https://ph-efficient-guide.blogspot.com/2021/05/async-clipboard-api-demo-copy-write-to.html?m=1 ! hope you guys find this helpful

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