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Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 18:47 (6 Years ago)
	We don't know how mrinja went about filling out the roles, due to having more players than usual. Presumably there is only one sorcerer, but we don't know for sure. [Read more]

Maria-chan
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Forum Posts: 51

Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 16:33 (6 Years ago)

Yeah, everyone was just operating with expecting you to be first so I wanted to point it out.

But yeah, checking both sorcerers is probably a good plan. Actually to some extent, with so many players 2 sorcerers seems more likely than none (though 1 is still most likely), so checking a townie claim first might be a good plan, since if they turn up town it is almost sure the other is mafia (not 100% because of Atavan or the very small likelihood of no sorcerers, but pretty close).

It is still most likely that 1 of each is lying, but since we need to choose a priority, it is probably reasonable to start with a townie. Which means either Ferret or Anarchy, both of whom have done occasional things that I deem suspicious but not enough to vote for them outright.

I would ask for agreement or disagreement but with the only others talking both being suspects it would probably be biased, lol.

[Read more]

Maria-chan
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Forum Posts: 51

Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 16:06 (6 Years ago)

As I look back, I think the cop may be silenced today. I checked and they have been online since the new day started (it has been like 10 hours but it has happened) and they usually at least quickly ask who to check even if they don't talk much. Unless the guard protected them (which I don't know, did they ever say who they were going to protect?), it is certainly rather plausible.

I still an not sure that you should necessarily be checked first, but it seems the others want to and I don't have any reason why it shouldn't be you.

Also, more info on deciding suspects:

Even using activity levels from previous nights doesn't yield a huge suspect.

Spy did not act night 4, but by now that could be for a couple of reasons. Of course they could have been inactive for that night (which would increase the likelihood on zuramaru), but they also could be trying to push us into thinking that it was an inactive (most of the suspects seem competent enough to think of that from what I have seen). They even could have just decided it isn't worth bothering without killing roles to use the information.

Silencer acted all nights. That makes it less likely to be an inactive (decreasing likelihood on zuramaru), but it is perfectly plausible to fake inactivity but still use an ability (it decreases likelihood of the mafia slipping up, though inactives do tend to receive suspicion by default).

Between the various scenarios, most things cancel out and suspicions are left fairly equal.

[Read more]

Maria-chan
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Forum Posts: 51

Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 15:46 (6 Years ago)

My initial question was "Who do you guys think cop should check first?"
If it has turned into voting, oops, but I think this is mostly just deciding who is most suspect in hopes of finding the mafia in fewer days.

We are talking about who to have the cop check because the cop themselves isn't active enough to be able to make an informed decision if they have been on at all so we need to tell them who to check if/when they show up.

[Read more]

Maria-chan
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Forum Posts: 51

Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 15:40 (6 Years ago)

As said, one sorcerer claim is likely lying and one townie claim is likely lying, there isn't really a significant gap in my level of suspect between the sorcerers. That's why I asked people rather than just saying we should check a specific person.

Unfortunately, there isn't much of a way to tell who is likely to be telling the truth and who is likely to be lying other than to check at this point.

[Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 14:53 (6 Years ago)
	Who do you guys think cop should check first? Cop themselves hasn't been active enough to likely be able to make an optimal decision on their own, so we should probably have someone to tell them to check. [Read more]

Maria-chan
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Forum Posts: 51

Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 13:32 (6 Years ago)

My order of suspicion:
cosmin - unconfirmed Sorcerer claim (1 of 2)
zuramaru - unconfirmed Sorcerer claim (1 of 2)
Ferret - unconfirmed Townie claim
Anarchy - unconfirmed Townie claim
Atavan - unconfirmed ? Town-aligned claim (low priority because a confirmed town-aligned was told and seems to believe it)
PokemonMaster - unconfirmed Reviver claim (no counterclaim with all claims in and a reviver known to exist, most likely accurate)

All other roles are either cop-confirmed or confirmed in some other manner.

Most likely 1 sorcerer and 1 townie are lying, though other scenarios are possible.

Anyone agree or disagree? I would like input on this.

[Read more]

Maria-chan
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Forum Posts: 51

Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 13:04 (6 Years ago)

I don't know who is top priority to check. But agreed to not voting.

Possibilities for Atavan:
They are the mysterious initial mayor (since the other was revived into it, if not the initial case there was no initial mayor).
They are a townie or another role had two people to start (other special roles are either dead or cop-confirmed).
They are lying.

While I was typing this, Suvi replied, so I don't know what to add to that, but I am keeping my old commentary here.

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Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 12:55 (6 Years ago)
	Okay, everyone has made a claim. Townie claims and sorcerer claims (since 2 people are claiming it) are suspicious and Atavan's claim is vague, so that's who needs to be checked. [Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 12:31 (6 Years ago)
	Atavan: Are you claiming Townie specifically or just a town-aligned role? I want to know so I can add your claim to the list. (I updated it for zuramaru's claim, it's on page 140 if any of the inactives didn't see it or anyone forgot. I plan to repost the list with any changes at the start of each day~) [Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 05:33 (6 Years ago)
	I sent a Shuckle~ [Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 05:27 (6 Years ago)
	I just did a quick drawing of a shiny buneary.~ Cute, but not super well drawn. [Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Tue, 06/03/2018 05:25 (6 Years ago)
	Your party was just eggs, so I looked through your boxes. I found a shiny buneary and thought it would be fun to draw. I think it's cute albeit not super well drawn.~ [Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Mon, 05/03/2018 23:27 (6 Years ago)
	Pretty much. Slow game, but effective for a town win. See you guys later, I have a lab to go to, so I'll be gone for a while.~ [Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Mon, 05/03/2018 23:06 (6 Years ago)
	Thank you, and I agree this is the last chance. It was getting rather irritating. [Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Mon, 05/03/2018 23:02 (6 Years ago)
	Please do not vote against Xtreme, he is on the town side. I understand your initial vote, but not now. Obviously if he does it again, I would understand you voting to lynch him, but for now he should be left alone. [Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Mon, 05/03/2018 22:49 (6 Years ago)
	Thank you for retracting, Xtreme. [Read more]

Maria-chan
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Forum Posts: 51

Posted: Mon, 05/03/2018 22:45 (6 Years ago)

Really, let's not kill unnecessarily, Xtreme. We need to have the cop check people.
Order I would check with current info if I was cop:
zuramaru - no claim
atavan - no claim
Ferret - unconfirmed Townie claim
Anarchy - unconfirmed Townie claim
cosmin - unconfirmed Sorcerer claim (I somewhat believe, though it would certainly be a smart claim for mafia if they believed there would be no counterclaim)
PokemonMaster - unconfirmed Reviver claim (though I do believe him based on some of what he has said, hence the low priority)

Everyone else was checked or otherwise confirmed to be their claimed role.

Agree or disagree with order?

However, annoyed as I am by Xtreme, I will not vote to lynch him.

[Read more]

Maria-chan
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Forum Posts: 51

Posted: Mon, 05/03/2018 22:21 (6 Years ago)

Updated Information:

Dead Roles: (n1 = page 127, n2 = page 130, n3 = page 134 n4= page 138)
Vigilante – night 2
Jailkeeper – night 3
Townie x3 (one revived) – all night 1, revive on night 2
Serial Killer – night 2
Godfather – night 3
Goon – night 3
Doctor – night 4

Role Claims:
Crosx – Townie – checked by Cop
Atavan - vague claim of Town-aligned, accuracy unknown
Ferret~ - Townie – accuracy unknown
ThatOneRyou – Cop – all evidence supports this being true
Zuramaru - Sorcerer, accuracy unkown
Maria-chan – Facestabber turned Townie – declared by Cop
cosmin_2006 – Sorcerer – accuracy unknown
*AnarchyMadScientist* - Townie – accuracy unknown
Suvichan – Guard - checked by Cop
PokemonMaster2308 – Reviver – accuracy unknown
XtremeGaming9326 – Mayor – confirmed by vote test

Alive but Unclaimed Roles:
Spy
Silencer
initial mayor – Xtreme revived into, initial one unknown, maybe Atavan? (if said mayor exists)

Did I miss any claims or evidence of claims?

Edit: Bolded headings for easier reading.~
Edit 2: Zuramaru claimed sorcerer, so I added it. This now has 2 people claiming sorcerer.
Edit 3: Added Atavan's claim. It is vague, but they could potentially be the mysterious initial mayor. Otherwise either they are lying or are yet another townie claim, as special roles are either dead or cop checked, unless there is a double of a role.

[Read more]

Maria-chan OFFLINE Forum Posts: 51	Posted: Mon, 05/03/2018 20:29 (6 Years ago)
	Makes sense. I approve of that plan. This just means that no one else should vote Xtreme or Viper unless of course we somehow get significant evidence against one of them. [Read more]

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